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lo is a weirdo

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the claws work for the bourgeoisie (idk if i spelled it right but considering im bilingual, i better have) [aka lo went bonkers during hc finale '20 and did more analysis than was necessary, culminating in a 2-post thread of epic proportions]


maraudertimes

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foreword: i am someone who enjoys knowing things. i dont like driving behind trucks on the highway because i cant see far ahead, i spoil myself on almost every show/movie because i need to know what happens before it happens, and i generally dont like it when i am left out of the loop. i am aware there's probably some sort of control issue, but that's not the point -> the point is i spent way too long creating a google spreadsheet and mapping things out during hc finale '20, made a thread about my predictions, and then used funny gifs to show my fellow gryffs exactly how off the deep end i had gone in two posts (which doesn't seem like a lot but they were... long) which i have smushed together for your perusing pleasure. so i give to you, the claws work for the bourgeoisie (idk if i spelled it right but considering im bilingual, i better have) [aka lo went bonkers during hc finale '20 and did more analysis than was necessary, culminating in a 2-post thread of epic proportions] ;) 

POST 1 (the initial post)

 

 

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all of you @ me rn^^^

alright, so im making this so i can stop spamming the twitter chat and also because i think the arbiters (*cough cough* @sinnersandsapphics *cough cough*) might like to know exactly how far i've gone into calculating things and being basically a nut case about this finale and points and my entire thought process...

okay so to keep track of things i maybe (read: definitely) was watching the other houses so we could gauge where we are at points wise. to do that i used my spreadsheet (puffs stole our red and we're very competitive (M) but i've disabled changing things for others so you don't mess it up accidentally or on purpose, i dont know ur life), and then got carried away a few times, but w/e...

 

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okay so we start with the last known points update: gryffindor has 3195, hufflepuff is next with 3077, ravenclaw close behind with 3041.5, and slytherin with 2835.5. cool! amazing! and then gnomes happens. based on us watching the forums and also the other houses reviews, it is safe to assume that hufflepuff got gnome 3, while ravenclaw hit all of them. we know that we got a 15% deduction on one of our gnomes (2nd one) which is accounted for, however because we cannot be sure that hufflepuff/ravenclaw asked for any hints, we cannot assume they also received those deductions. so...

assumption #1: ravenclaw and hufflepuff are too smart and got some dope riddles

cool! what happened next? beans! now because we cannot see the other houses' bean threads, i've made the assumption that they either all guessed them correctly, or they finished their tasks, and that is carried through to the 3 bean rounds...

assunption #2: ravenclaw, hufflepuff, and slytherin are getting the full 50 points for every bean round

sweet! then we don't need assumptions for get that ludo bagman coin, because it's provided to us. we know that in the first round we secured the bag and walked away with 35 point, the second round we fell on our faces and bit it with only 11 points, and the third round we got ourselves figure out and came back with 32 points. we also know the other houses received 59 (puffs), 69 (claws - ayyyyyy), and 15 (snakes) - also the totals might be off that was some quick maths.

nice. we also know that during golf, that we got 30 points for getting 6 questions right, and so did the claws. the superhuman eva (and the rest of the puffs) snagged 55 points and also the admiration (and frustration) of everyone who isn't a puff. then with the recent bulletin, ravenclaw and gryffindor got 75 each for head students (hell yeah, go @shadowycorner for being amazing), and slytherin snagged 25 for SOTM.

then challenges! there were a bunch of challenge placements that were announced since the last point update. based on what i know i calculated that gryffindors probably got about 87.5 points from that (2.5 from a split entry, so variable here), 55 for puffs, 132.5 for claws (again, an entry submitted by two authors so split), and 10 for the snakes.

amazing, we have all of those points for sure! now here's where the variables come in...

 

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we don't know who won sandcastles, exploding snap, or seahorses, and we are currently working through brooms. here is what im working with:

  • sandcastles was valiantly fought for the point breakdown of 300-225-150-75. i dont think we placed last based on our approximate point calculation of 2935, however because i dont want to falsely assume something and give us a false sense of security, i won't be speculating further on our position
  • exploding snap was also a fun time and we swarmed the forums. i think we managed to hit 116 overall points? when it came to tracking the other houses, i assumed all threads were safe unless we proved that theory otherwise. again, this is so that we didnt get overconfident. with that, i think claws hit 110, puffs got 48, and snakes got 6. HOWEVER we didn't get a point breakdown so i am at a loss for this one and have decided that its not worth crying over (anymore)
  • seahorses was a mess and a half. we know the points breakdown was 200-150-100-50, but there was no way to even remotely track the other houses. but we managed to complete it fairly quickly, so im assuming we didnt place last
  • brooms is still going on. based on my last check of other houses reviews and our own spreadsheet that is pretty much up to date, we've got about 394, puffs have 359, and claws have 308. this is not including those bonuses, however im gonna go out on a limb here and say that evas getting that 50 bonus and we'll be fighting for the claws for 2nd and 3rd place bonuses. but those arent even counted for as of yet so who knows, im just going to be using the current stats i have for this next part

 

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alright so here's the thing. with that in mind and without a point breakdown for the gryffomancer odeon or w/e, there are 36 possible scenarios. all 36 in spoiler tag below with the ones where we are not winning highlighted in red

Spoiler
  1. sandcastles placement (lions, claws, puffs) + seahorses placement (lions, claws, puffs)
  2. sandcastles placement (lions, claws, puffs) + seahorses placement (lions, puffs, claws)
  3. sandcastles placement (lions, claws, puffs) + seahorses placement (claws, lions, puffs)
  4. sandcastles placement (lions, claws, puffs) + seahorses placement (claws, puffs, lions)
  5. sandcastles placement (lions, claws, puffs) + seahorses placement (puffs, lions, claws)
  6. sandcastles placement (lions, claws, puffs) + seahorses placement (puffs, claws, lions)
  7. sandcastles placement (lions, puffs, claws) + seahorses placement (lions, claws, puffs)
  8. sandcastles placement (lions, puffs, claws) + seahorses placement (lions, puffs, claws)
  9. sandcastles placement (lions, puffs, claws) + seahorses placement (claws, lions, puffs)
  10. sandcastles placement (lions, puffs, claws) + seahorses placement (claws, puffs, lions)
  11. sandcastles placement (lions, puffs, claws) + seahorses placement (puffs, lions, claws)
  12. sandcastles placement (lions, puffs, claws) + seahorses placement (puffs, claws, lions)
  13. sandcastles placement (claws, lions, puffs) + seahorses placement (lions, claws, puffs)
  14. sandcastles placement (claws, lions, puffs) + seahorses placement (lions, puffs, claws)
  15. sandcastles placement (claws, lions, puffs) + seahorses placement (claws, lions, puffs)
  16. sandcastles placement (claws, lions, puffs) + seahorses placement (claws, puffs, lions)
  17. sandcastles placement (claws, lions, puffs) + seahorses placement (puffs, lions, claws)
  18. sandcastles placement (claws, lions, puffs) + seahorses placement (puffs, claws, lions)
  19. sandcastles placement (claws, puffs, lions) + seahorses placement (lions, claws, puffs)
  20. sandcastles placement (claws, puffs, lions) + seahorses placement (lions, puffs, claws)
  21. sandcastles placement (claws, puffs, lions) + seahorses placement (claws, lions, puffs)
  22. sandcastles placement (claws, puffs, lions) + seahorses placement (claws, puffs, lions)
  23. sandcastles placement (claws, puffs, lions) + seahorses placement (puffs, lions, claws)
  24. sandcastles placement (claws, puffs, lions) + seahorses placement (puffs, claws, lions)
  25. sandcastles placement (puffs, lions, claws) + seahorses placement (lions, claws, puffs)
  26. sandcastles placement (puffs, lions, claws) + seahorses placement (lions, puffs, claws)
  27. sandcastles placement (puffs, lions, claws) + seahorses placement (claws, lions, puffs)
  28. sandcastles placement (puffs, lions, claws) + seahorses placement (claws, puffs, lions)
  29. sandcastles placement (puffs, lions, claws) + seahorses placement (puffs, lions, claws)
  30. sandcastles placement (puffs, lions, claws) + seahorses placement (puffs, claws, lions)
  31. sandcastles placement (puffs, claws, lions) + seahorses placement (lions, claws, puffs)
  32. sandcastles placement (puffs, claws, lions) + seahorses placement (lions, puffs, claws)
  33. sandcastles placement (puffs, claws, lions) + seahorses placement (claws, lions, puffs)
  34. sandcastles placement (puffs, claws, lions) + seahorses placement (claws, puffs, lions)
  35. sandcastles placement (puffs, claws, lions) + seahorses placement (puffs, lions, claws)
  36. sandcastles placement (puffs, claws, lions) + seahorses placement (puffs, claws, lions)

now i did some spreadsheeting and found that in 33 of those possible scenarios, we are still in the lead. the other 3 scenarios are when claws are winning. i then took the min, max, average, and median of the difference between our points and the next highest house's points, or the leading house and our points, and here they are:

if gryffindor is ahead:

  • the closest ravenclaw can be is 3.25 points away 👀
  • the furthest ravenclaw can be is 428.25 points away ☺️
  • but the average would be about 198 points 👍
  • and actually the median is quite close, with 203.25 points away ❤️

if ravenclaw is ahead the only two possible point differences are:

  • 21.75 points away
  • 71.85 points away

i mean the ~72 one is not great, but we could still somehow make a comeback. also for shits and giggles, here is the breakdown of min/max/average/median of hufflepuff away from us:

  • the closest they can be is 209.25
  • the farthest is 709.25
  • the average is about 468 points
  • and the median is 484.25

i don't know if this is helpful or interesting, but i'll definitely post an update after brooms is done with the final tallies and the bonus points, and then after last bookie comes out, and then immediately after duelling (if the arbiters don't have their write up done, just so we can have a general idea of what might happen, and again, so i dont spam the twitter chat with my stats and numbers)

and i leave you with this, if you don't understand the name of this thread...

the birds work for the bourgeoisie (M)

 

POST 2 (electric boogaloo)

 

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^^y'all, seeing i've made a new post in this

ALRIGHT FRIENDS, finale is over so what do we know? not much which is why im here. we did amazing, don't get me wrong, but i'm one of those people that needs to know things. i like having information, i don't like to be in the dark. i think it has to do with my anxiety but this is neither the time nor the place to discuss that so let's get into it

 

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as with last time, im carrying my assumptions over. however, i forgot we used a hint for seahorses so all our numbers are -10 (sad but factual). for duels i am going with the assumption that [...] there are 8 possible scenarios (see spoiler below - winners bolded, underlined)

Spoiler
  1. G vs R; G vs H; R vs H - G (300); R (200); H (100)
  2. G vs R; G vs H; R vs H - G (300); R (100); H (200)
  3. G vs R; G vs H; R vs H - G (200); R (200); H (200)
  4. G vs R; G vs H; R vs H - G (200); R (100); H (300)
  5. G vs R; G vs H; R vs H - G (200); R (300); H (100)
  6. G vs R; G vs H; R vs H - G (200); R (200); H (200)
  7. G vs R; G vs H; R vs H - G (100); R (300); H (200)
  8. G vs R; G vs H; R vs H - G (100); R (200); H (300)

so i could definitely try and figure out all the possible combos, but that's 8*36=288 combos [actually since there are two scenarios where everyone has 200 points its 7*36=252 but thats still a lot] and i definitely did try, but it was a lot so i just did it intuitively given the data i already have

 

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so given the possible scenarios i have, any scenario where we are already losing will be taken into account, as well as any where hufflepuff/ravenclaw are less than 200 points away (because the max difference is 300-100=200) unfortunately, out of the 36 combos ive got, thats 19 scenarios...

yup, this isn't going to be going very well for me...

 

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okay so let's talk about ravenclaw. based on the OG post, we know the only way they can beat us is if:

  1. they are already winning (if we got third in either sandcastles or seahorses, with second in the other; or third in both events)
  2. they are within 200 points of us

so in the spoiler below i will lay out all the ways this could pan out with us losing...

Spoiler

claws are already winning by less than 100 in all cases:

  1. we got third in sandcastles and second in seahorses; claws got first in both
  2. we got third in both sandcastles and seahorses; claws got first in sandcastles and second in seahorses
  3. we got third in both sandcastles and seahorses; claws got first in both

we will still lose if we get the same or less in duelling than the claws (5 scenarios [out of 8])

we are winning, but claws are behind by less than 100 (hufflepuff is not in the running):

  1. we got third in sandcastles and first in seahorses; claws got first in sandcastles, second in seahorses
  2. we got third in sandcastles and second in seahorses; claws got first in sandcastles, third in seahorses
  3. we got second in sandcastles and seahorses; claws got first in both
  4. we got third in sandcastles and second in seahorses; claws got second in sandcastles and first in seahorses
  5. we got second in sandcastles and third in seahorses; claws got first in sandcastles and second in seahorses
  6. we got second in sandcastles and third in seahorses; claws got first in both
  7. we got third in sandcastles and seahorses; claws got second in sandcastles and first in seahorses

we will lose if claws get at least 100 more than us in duelling (3 scenarios)

we are winning, but claws are behind by 100-200:

  1. we got third in sandcastles and first in seahorses; claws got first in sandcastles and third in seahorses
  2. we got second in sandcastles and first in seahorses; claws got first in sandcastles and second in seahorses
  3. we got third in sandcastles and first in seahorses; claws got second in sandcastles and second in seahorses
  4. we got second in sandcastles and second in seahorses; claws got first in sandcastles and third in seahorses
  5. we got first in sandcastles and third in seahorses; claws got third in sandcastles and first in seahorses
  6. we got second in sandcastles and third in seahorses; claws got third in sandcastles and first in seahorses

we will lose if claws get 200 more than us in duelling (1 scenario)

we are winning, but puffs are behind by 100-200:

  1. we got second in sandcastles and third in seahorses; puffs got first in both

we will lose if puffs get 200 more than us in duelling (1 scenario)

exceptional circumstances (i.e. where the person in third place could win because points are so close):

  1. we got third in sandcastles and seahorses; claws got second in both; puffs got first in both -> this situation is very specific. if puffs win both of their duels against us and the claws, they win (2 scenarios). if claws win both of their duels against us and the puffs, they win (2 scenarios)
  2. we got third in sandcastles and second in seahorses; claws got second in sandcastles and third in seahorses; puffs got first in both sandcastles and seahorses -> this situation is also very specific. the only way that either puffs or claws can win is if they win both their duels and we lose both of ours. i.e. we will lose if either puffs or claws get 200 more than us, to the house that gets the 200 points (2 scenarios; 1 for each)

 

communityconspiracy.gif.5477ab378600c84d59ab419a87169cbb.gif

 

so what does this mean? because right now looking at is, that's a lot of scenarios...

well yes, and no. because i'm using the 8 scenarios, that brings the total number of possibilities to 288 (see above). the total number of those possibilities that result in us losing is 49. that's only 17% of the possible scenarios, not including all the assumptions i've made that give the benefit of the doubt to the puffs and claws not using hints/not losing any points anywhere for any reason.

so is it possible that we will lose? absolutely. there's always a possibility. but considering that ~83% of all scenarios result in us winning, my worry has been sufficiently damped.

 

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but i also want to point out that the stats i've used were using wild assumptions, and don't take into account exploding snap. we could be doing a lot worse than i thought, or a lot better. this was mostly to give myself peace of mind because otherwise i would spiral.

 

Post-Everything Analysis

i know this comes super late but y'all, you gave us a run for our money. i was constantly crunching numbers because i was sure that even though we weren't slipping, y'all were still ten steps ahead, because of how close everything was. it was a hard fought battle, and i'm excited to see where our HC goes (also plz vote in the house cup feedback thread) and how i, as a new member of the event coordinators team, will use my gifs, number crunching, and love of funny titles, will fit into that new role where i finally get TO KNOW EVERYTHING OH MY GOODNESS WHAT A TIME!

i hope you enjoyed this overly analytical, absolutely very late blog post, but as we all know, i am never on time. peace, friends ❤️ 

Edited by maraudertimes

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magemadi

Posted

lo this is insane and i love you very much for doing this 😂 ❤️

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shadowycorner

Posted (edited)

this was a joy to read again, i am very much here for your spreadsheet powers/insanity ❤️ :D 

Edited by shadowycorner
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